What does Roger Federer have left in the tank?

The US Open is in full swing, and once again, Roger Federer faces a make-or-break tournament, as the media increasingly believes that his time on center stage is up. We've been here before. Two years ago, at this exact same time, Federer looked to be in serious trouble; he had not won a major all year, had been crushed by Rafael Nadal in the French Open final, he had been taken down on his favorite surface, grass, in that epic Wimbledon final, and he was increasingly losing in the early rounds in the lesser tournaments . The pundits said that Nadal, and maybe even Novak Djokovich and Andy Murray, had overtaken Federer forever. Instead, Federer handily won his fifth US Open in a row and revived his career, eventually breaking the record for most Grand Slam titles ever won by one man.

That's not to say that we'll see the same thing happen again. There are some differences between 2008 and 2010. For one, Federer is two years older now, and since tennis players peak at a notoriously young age, it can legitimately be argued that Federer is now past his prime, which would not have been true two years ago. Secondly, in 2008, when it came to the majors, Federer only lost to the best. He lost to Nadal twice and #3 Novak Djokovich once. This year, he has lost to someone he had never previously lost to before, Robin Soderling, and someone who was not even a top-20 player at the time, Tomas Berdych. That does not bode well. Those losses have stripped from Federer the psychological edge he held over most opponents at all the major championships, which is something that cannot be underestimated.

Another difference between 2008 pre-US Open and 2010 pre-US Open, this one positive, is the momentum that Federer and Nadal had entering the event. In 2008 Nadal was at his highest point and Federer was at his lowest. Nadal looked like a shoo-in champion after winning the last two majors and performing well in the US Open Series. This year, Nadal entered in somewhat of a summer swoon and Federer entered riding high after two finals appearances in a row at minor tournaments and one tournament victory. Since Nadal always picks it up in the majors, I do not expect his recent downturn to last, but I think Federer's upturn will.

Before delving into Federer's future, the first question that must be answered is how well he will play in the US Open (and before delving into that I have to admit that I'm a big Federer fan). How well he does at this tournament, I believe, will tell a lot about what the rest of Federer's career holds for him. If he loses early (quarterfinals or before), I believe that he will fade fast and won't remain much of a factor for long. On the other hand, if he wins the whole thing, I think he's here to stay and will be competing with Nadal in major finals for a long while.

So how do I think he'll do? I still think Federer is much better than Djokovich, his presumed semifinal opponent, and I don't see him losing to Novak at this tournament. Given his current streak of good play, both pre-US Open and during it, I also don't see him losing to his next two presumed opponents (as of the writing of this blog post) Jurgen Melzer and Robin Soderling (who is the biggest threat here). I also don't see him losing to any other random opponent who crops up. However, I don't think Federer is better than Nadal, nor will he ever be again, therefore I think that he'll lose to Nadal in a hard-fought, four to five set final.

I think my prediction for Federer's US Open sums up my prediction for the rest of Federer's career as well. He'll remain the second best player in the world for a while- up to 2014 even; but he'll never again be the best. He might win another major if Nadal loses in the earlier rounds or if he pulls off the finals upset over Nadal, but it won't happen very often. However, given what he's already accomplished in his career, what's wrong with that?


So did I miss anything? Did I misrepresent some issue? Even though i know this is more of an esoteric topic to you all than my other posts, comments would be appreciated.